Is Winter Really the “Off-Season” for Bellingham Real Estate

Jan 16

It is widely spoken that “the time to sell is the spring or summer.” Flowers and trees are blooming, the kids are out of school, the weather’s dry and the days long.

It simply must be the ideal time to buy or sell, right? The dips in the 10-year "Active inventory in Bellingham" graph below graph show the distinct drop-off every winter.

From the summertime peak, usually in August, it has become common to see the number of Active listings decline by half as we hit the low in January or February.(The average seasonal decline in inventory over the past 5 years has been 49%).

Q: But what if winter is, for you, for any number of reasons, the time to make your move?

Q: What if your life requires a purchase or a sale as the holidays approach? Can you still do OK?

To answer that, I’m going to compare 3 key metrics, pitting mid-summer against mid-winter the following ways:

How much of the available inventory actually sells?
How long do winter listings sit on the market, versus summer listings?
And, do winter listings fetch as high of a sale price as summer listings?

How Many Winter vs. Summer Listings Are Actually Selling?

It is inarguable that there is a lot less for buyers to look at in the winter. (Right now in Bellingham there are 50 Active listings across all price ranges).But how do winter sales compare as a percentage of Active listings?

Here’s a telling graph, zoomed in to just the past 5 years.

Orange = Active listings

Blue = Sold listingsLet’s look at the actual numbers.

I'll share a table of the following:

The one-month peak of summer Active listings
The number of closed sales in the month that followed (to give time for a 30-day escrow period)
And the ratio of those two numbers.

Here’s the summer table:

Now let’s look at the corresponding winter table:

Summer Result: During the summer peak of inventory, an average of 48.3% of listings sold.

Winter Result: During the winter low of inventory, an average of 63.2% of listings sold. That’s nearly ¼ more sales as a fraction of inventory.

Score one point for the winter “off-season”!

*NOTE ABOUT NOW: In the past 30 days in Bellingham, there have been an average of 56 Active listings on the market. In that same time frame, there have been 92 closed sales. That’s 164% of available listings. (Look again at that previous graph, how the two curves intersect and ultimately trade places on that right edge. That’s what leads to such dramatic decline in inventory.)

How Does Seasonal Time on Market Compare?

Now let’s look at time on market for those ideal flowers-in-bloom summer conditions, versus the cold, sometimes-snowy, gray-sky winter listings.

In the table below, I’m going to list the median days on market for every August going back to 2015, and every January as well.

Summer average: 11.7 days on market.

Winter average: 29 days on market.

Score one point for “Summer sales.” We’re all tied up.

*NOTE ABOUT NOW: Median days on market for the past 30 days in Bellingham has been 7 days. Median price has been $527,500.

What’s Better: Summer or Winter Sale Prices?

For the final data point, we’ll look at the summer vs. winter sale prices as a percentage of list price. Again, I’ll begin in 2015 and pit August sales against January sales for each year.

Although we’re talking very small margins, year-over-year August sales out-perform winter sales in this category. The north-of-100% data also points to a summer-pattern of more frequent multiple offers and escalation above list price.

*NOTE ABOUT NOW: Over the past 30 days, despite the late-ish time of year, Bellingham’s average sale price to list price has been 102.07%. This out-performs every other 30-day period in MLS records.

In Summary...

In this seasonal showdown...

Summer scores two points to winter’s one point.

Although a smaller portion of available inventory is selling in the summer, it is generally selling faster and for a higher sale price as a percentage of list price.

HOWEVER....

It’s important to note that what is happening in the market right now is uncharted territory. In Bellingham, 70% of all listings are currently under contract with buyers. In Sudden Valley it’s 79%. (County-wide it's 60%).Multiple offers and escalations over list price are commonplace.

We just listed THIS FIXER-UPPER after having it pre-inspected and requiring an “as-is” sale. We received 6 offers that extended as much as $70K above list price, and it’s pending in the $500K’s.Seasonality has a much more noticeable effect on buyers than it does sellers, in that there are notably less listings to look at.

As a seller, you can absolutely take advantage of the lean inventory and maximize a mid-winter sale to your benefit.

If selling in the winter fits your life better, let’s do it!