Is the Bellingham Real Estate Market Slowing Down???
The most common question we get lately is this:
"So, is the market starting to slow?"
You better sit down before I answer that. Go ahead.
The answer is, sort of, yes, it kind of is.
Note that "kind of slowing down" is wayyyyy different than "the market has turned, and now it's a buyer's market.
"It's definitely not that. It *is* beginning to show signs of slowing, though, in ways like this:
The multiple offers we see on some houses have gone from 8 or 10 offers.... to 2 or 3.The expectations of a hundred people through an open house have been over-reaching.Note... for the market condition that have existed — especially those in the first half of 2021— to be sort of showing signs of slowing, is like bringing the family Subaru Outback going south on I-5 at 140 miles per hour to a mere 125 miles per hour.
It is still very, very HOT, FAST, and COMPETITIVE!
It's too early to share data that reflects what I'm suggesting here. It is more nuance that we see by being in the field every day.
Eventually, the data will reflect it, and in a not-too-distant-in-the-future email I will begin sharing it with you.
What happened in Q1 & Q2, 2021?
Forget any mention of "slowing conditions" now. Jump up and shake off that couch-session I just asked you to do... get the blood flowing to your limbs again.
Now let's compare the first 6 months of 2021 in the Whatcom County and Bellingham real estate markets with:
The previous six months, ending December 31, 2020, and...
The same six-month period from one year ago.
CATEGORIES OF DATA
We'll focus on these categories:
Single family detached homes only (not condos)
Volume of Active inventory
Number of closed sales
Sale Price
Days on market
For all of Whatcom County, for the 6 month period ending 1 year ago:
There were 471 Active listings on the market.
There had been 1187 sales.
Median price was $425K
Median days-on-market was 14 days.
Jump ahead six months to December 31, 2020. For the 2nd half of 2020, County-wide:
There were 428 Active listings on the market.
There had been 1883 sales.
Median price was $460K
Median days-on-market was 8 days.
For the first half of 2021, ending June 30:
There are 264 Active listings on the market, a YOY 44% decrease.
There have been 1420 sales, a YOY increase of 19.6%.
Median price is $520K, a YOY increase of 22.35%.
Median days-on-market was 5 days, a YOY decline of 64.3%
For just Bellingham, for the 6 month period ending 1 year ago:
There were 125 Active listings on the market.
There had been 383 sales.
Median price was $489K
Median days-on-market was was 7 days.
Jump ahead six months to December 31, 2020. For the 2nd half of 2020 in Bellingham:
There were 26 Active listings on the market.
There were 590 sales.
Median price was $548,450.
Median days-on-market was 7 days.
For the first half of 2021, ending June 30:
There are currently 62 Active listings, a YOY decline of 50%.
There have been 408 sales, a YOY increase of 6.5%.
Median price is $624,500, a YOY increase of 27.7%.
Median days-on-market was 5 days, a YOY decline of 28.5%.
FUN FACTS
Fact: If you bought a median house in Bellingham 1 year ago (3 beds, 2 baths, 1900-ish square feet), that house has appreciated by $2,605.77 every week.
Fact: 1 year ago in Bellingham, 17% of sales were cash. Today, 25% of sales are cash.
Fact: In the first half of 2020, there had been 19 sales over $1M in Bellingham. In the first half of 2021, there have been 55 sales -- an increase of 189%.
